A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
